The Intersection of Social Density and Tenancy Duration in Affordable Housing

Christina Bollo (Univ. of Illinois)

While the average residential social density has decreased in the United States over the past century, residents of subsidized housing have seen neither their home sizes increase nor their household sizes decrease. Because of this, they may be vulnerable to the health and wellbeing challenges that correlate with crowding. This primary research provides evidence for one particular impact on wellbeing: crowding. The less floor area each person has, the shorter they stay in the apartment. Residential mobility also has documented impacts on wellbeing.

To measure the role of crowding tenancy duration, this study uses five years of move-in and move-out data for the tenants of subsidized housing in Washington State and the architectural attributes for the apartments these tenants lived in. The quantitative analysis consists of a multiple linear regression model for each building, created using the stepwise selection method selection method.

The results of the study show that each of the five buildings exhibited a significant regression equation between social density calculated as floor area/person and tenancy duration. These diminished durations ranged from a half day to eight days per square foot per person. Additional case-by-case analysis showed that the majority of the households who transferred within their buildings moved from a smaller apartment to a larger one. The analysis shows that households headed by single parents have an average of 107 square feet less per person than a family headed by a couple, putting these families at even greater risk.

Because the social density metric used by this study is a strong predictor of tenancy duration, this research impacts both housing developers and designers. Further, because social density is an interaction between a demographic attribute, household size, and an architectural attribute, the floor area of the apartment, stakeholders must collaborate to diminish the effects of crowding.